In context: Google researcher and reverse engineer “LaurieWired” recently posed a thought-provoking thread on X: What would happen after a CPU manufacturing apocalypse? How would the tech world respond to a future without newer, faster processors? Programming and optimization legend John Carmack offered an equally compelling answer.
LaurieWired proposes the idea of a “Zero Tape-out Day” (Z-Day), an event causing manufacturers to stop producing new silicon designs. Considering the existing supply, the researcher predicts skyrocketing computer prices, stalled cloud capacity, and a ticking clock on electromigration slowly degrading the most advanced chips built on smaller nodes – all within the first year after Z-Day.
Conditions would deteriorate even further in the following years, with a booming black market for processors and Xeon CPUs valued more than gold. Computing technology could regress by decades as older systems built on larger nodes prove far more resilient to electromigration.
What if humanity forgot how to make CPUs?
Imagine Zero Tape-out Day (Z-Day), the moment where no further silicon designs ever get manufactured. Advanced core designs fare out very badly.
Assuming we keep our existing supply, here’s how it would play out: pic.twitter.com/Fy1QksSPIF
– LaurieWired (@lauriewired) May 12, 2025
People would mod classic processors like the Motorola 68000 to operate for thousands of years without significant gate wear. More advanced systems – such as the iMac G3s sold between 1998 and 2003 – would become workstations for the elite, while the proles use repurpose hardware from Gameboys, Macintosh SEs, and Commodore 64s.
LaurieWired suggests that 30 years after Z-Day, the world would become a dystopia where computing resembles the 1970s or 1980s. The modern internet would vanish, replaced by sneakernet data exchanges on SSDs and efforts to safeguard valuable desktop hardware from confiscation.
I have also run this fun thought experiment! More of the world than many might imagine could run on outdated hardware if software optimization was truly a priority, and market price signals on scarce compute would make it happen. Rebuild all the interpreted microservice based… https://t.co/lmE9oF07YQ
– John Carmack (@ID_AA_Carmack) May 13, 2025
Former id Software developer John Carmack decided to weigh in on the thought experiment. Having created the Doom graphics engine in just 28 hours on “vintage hardware,” his expertise provided some perspective. Carmack said that a significant part of the modern world could run on outdated hardware if software optimization were a priority for developers.
The god-tier coder suggests that developers could transition all interpreted, microservice-based products to monolithic, native codebases. Programmers would abandon modern development patterns and seek more efficient approaches, such as those used during earlier computing eras when there was no internet to push patches.
Such a paradigm reset would force post-apocalyptic coders to make ancient hardware hum through software optimization. Carmack also acknowledges that innovative new products would become much rarer without ultra-cheap and scalable computing.
What would life be like if ID stopped at Wolfenstein and never developed Quake? pic.twitter.com/52aE2UpLM9
– Relentless (@imaCoden) May 13, 2025
While framed within the context of LaurieWired’s thought experiment, Carmack’s ideas hold practical relevance in today’s computing landscape. For example, would Microsoft still impose strict hardware requirements if it prioritized optimizing Windows 11? It’s a question worth considering. Similarly, how much could the gaming industry benefit from better optimization?
